驶向2030：全球新能源汽车产业发展格局与展望
车百智库&麦肯锡 EV100PLUS & McKinsey Company
过去十年，全球新能源汽车产业在市场规模、技术路线、消费者偏好及供应链体系方面经历了深刻变革。2023年全球新能源乘用车销量突破1300万辆，中国市场占比达58%，并在高端市场表现突出。全球市场呈现区域化差异，北欧渗透率领先，美国与东盟增长迅速，日韩低于预期。技术创新加速推进电池、智能驾驶及智能座舱迭代，固态电池、钠离子电池等新技术逐步成熟；补能基础设施加快建设，800V快充普及提升使用便利性。
展望2030年，全球新能源汽车渗透率预计将达50%，中国消费者的智能化需求将深刻影响全球市场。动力电池成本有望下降约25%，高阶智能化功能将下探至更低价位车型。未来产品将实现软件定义、智驾转型、场景化空间等功能变革，供应链格局将由全球标准化向区域差异化转变。中国车企有望在全球前十大销量中占据多个席位，行业集中度显著提升。企业需围绕技术创新、成本控制、生态运营、用户洞察及组织效能构建核心竞争力，以应对盈利性挑战、地缘政治风险及能源转型带来的不确定性。
Over the past decade, the global new energy vehicle (NEV) industry has undergone profound transformation in market scale, technology pathways, consumer preferences, and supply chain structures. In 2023, global NEV passenger car sales exceeded 13 million units, with China accounting for 58% and showing strong performance in the premium segment. The global market exhibits regional differences—Nordic countries lead in penetration, the U.S. and ASEAN markets are expanding rapidly, while Japan and South Korea lag behind expectations. Accelerated innovation is driving advances in batteries, autonomous driving, and intelligent cockpits, with technologies such as solid-state and sodium-ion batteries maturing; charging infrastructure is expanding, with 800V fast charging improving convenience.
Looking ahead to 2030, global NEV penetration is expected to reach 50%, with Chinese consumers’ demand for intelligent features shaping global trends. Lithium battery costs are projected to fall by about 25%, and advanced intelligent functions will become available in lower-priced models. Future vehicles will be defined by software, transition toward intelligent driving, and feature scenario-based mobility spaces. Supply chains will shift from global standardization to regional differentiation. Chinese automakers are poised to secure multiple spots among the global top 10 by sales, with market concentration rising sharply. To navigate profitability pressures, geopolitical risks, and uncertainties from energy transitions, automakers must build core capabilities in technology innovation, cost management, ecosystem operations, consumer insight, and organizational efficiency.