英国汽车产量触及73年“新低”：供应链受挫、政策不确定性加剧
10月24日，英国汽车制造商和贸易商协会公布，2025年9月英国乘用车产量为51,090辆，同比下降27%；计入商用车后，总产量降幅进一步扩大。今年以来，受全球竞争、制造成本攀升与外需走弱等因素叠加影响，英国汽车制造业持续承压。
捷豹路虎因8月31日发生的网络攻击，在英国的三座工厂9月基本停线，影响约3.3万名员工，并对零部件与物流环节产生显著外溢效应。经济损失估算约19亿英镑，涉及企业逾5000家。10月起捷豹路虎已分阶段复产，但产能爬坡与供应链修复仍在推进中。
商用车领域收缩幅度更大。9月商用车产量降至3,229辆，受年内Stellantis关闭卢顿轻型商用车工厂等因素影响，同时叠加制造成本上行、零排放政策调整与企业战略重配，阶段性产能受到压制。
外部市场亦构成约束。英国整车高度依赖出口，2024年对美出口额约90亿英镑（约占总额27%）。4月起对美加征关税曾导致部分企业暂停发运；自6月30日起，每年首10万辆英产汽车适用10%配额关税，相关压力有所缓解，但欧盟需求偏弱与监管趋严仍抑制订单与产能利用率。脱欧后的制度与成本摩擦延续，早前福特、本田相继关闭在英工厂亦表明结构性压力的累积。
税制变动同样增加不确定性。秋季预算案带来高收入群体税负收紧与非居民规则调整，影响部分高端消费；若员工购车计划（ECOS）被归类为应税“实物福利”，将削弱行业员工购车可负担性，并可能对销量、产量与就业产生连锁影响。
在下行环境中，电动化依然体现相对韧性。纯电与插混注册量延续增长，受最高3,750英镑购车补贴及充电基础设施投入支撑。中国品牌市场份额升至低双位数区间，其中名爵保持领先，奇瑞与比亚迪增速较快。短期内的修复将主要取决于捷豹路虎复产节奏与关键供应环节恢复；中期内，对美配额安排与购车激励有望托底需求；长期竞争力的重塑仍依赖于税制、能源与用工成本以及规则衔接等结构性问题的改善，以支撑英国在2030年前重返全球前15大汽车制造国的目标。
On 24 October, SMMT reported that UK passenger-car output fell 27% year-on-year to 51,090 units in September; including commercial vehicles, the overall decline was steeper. Throughout 2025, UK automotive capacity has remained under pressure from intensified global competition, rising manufacturing costs, and softer external demand.
The cyberattack that began on 31 August kept three Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) plants idle for most of September, affecting roughly 33,000 employees and generating material spillovers across parts and logistics. The economic impact is estimated at around £1.9 billion, involving more than 5,000 organisations. JLR initiated a phased restart in October, but capacity ramp-up and supply-chain normalisation are still in progress.
The commercial-vehicle segment contracted more sharply. September CV output declined to 3,229 units, reflecting Stellantis’s closure of the Luton light-van plant, alongside higher manufacturing costs, evolving zero-emission rules, and corporate strategy realignment that collectively constrained capacity.
External markets remain a key constraint. The UK is highly export-oriented, with 2024 vehicle exports to the US valued at about £9 billion (circa 27% of the total). Tariff increases in April prompted shipment pauses; from 30 June, a 10% tariff quota on the first 100,000 UK-built cars provided partial relief. Nevertheless, muted EU demand and tighter regulations continue to weigh on orders and utilisation, while post-Brexit frictions—evidenced by earlier plant exits by Ford and Honda—underscore accumulated structural pressures.
Tax policy adds further uncertainty. Autumn Budget measures tightened high-income taxation and revised non-dom rules, affecting parts of the premium segment; potential reclassification of Employee Car Ownership Scheme vehicles as taxable benefits could reduce affordability for industry workers and, in turn, pressure sales, output, and employment.Amid the downturn, electrification demonstrates relative resilience: BEV and PHEV registrations continue to expand, supported by purchase grants of up to £3,750 and charging-network investment. Chinese brands have reached a low double-digit market share, led by MG, with Chery and BYD gaining momentum. Near-term stabilisation will depend primarily on JLR’s ramp-up and supplier recovery; in the medium term, the US tariff-quota arrangement and purchase incentives should underpin demand; over the longer term, restoring competitiveness will hinge on structural improvements in taxation, energy and labour costs, and regulatory alignment to support the goal of re-entering the global top-15 manufacturing cohort by 2030.