电动汽车电池市场失衡：全球产能远超需求
据《日经新闻》援引标普全球移动出行数据报道，随着电动汽车需求降温，全球电池产能正快速走向过剩。预计到2026年，全球电池供应量将达到需求量的三倍以上，到2030年仍将保持在两倍以上。
目前，全球电动汽车电池年产能预计为3,930 GWh，而需求量仅为1,161 GWh。北美地区供需失衡尤为突出，今年电池供应量预计将是需求的4.8倍，且在2028年前差距仍将维持在四倍以上。美国、日本等国原本希望通过鼓励本土建厂来降低对中国的依赖，但需求放缓使相关战略面临压力。
市场格局方面，中国电池企业依旧保持领先。宁德时代和比亚迪位列全球前两位，合计占据约七成市场份额。相比之下，LG新能源和松下等日韩企业份额持续下滑。与此同时，美国和韩国的部分投资项目已出现推迟或缩减，瑞典电池制造商Northvolt更在今年申请破产保护。
电池过剩已导致价格大幅下跌。高盛数据显示，2024年全球电池均价下降至每千瓦时111美元，并预计将在2026年底降至80美元左右。尽管如此，中国企业仍在扩大欧洲投资，并加大低价电池产能，进一步拉大与其他地区竞争对手的差距。
国际能源署警告称，若未来锂、镍等资源开发投资不足，可能在2030年前出现原材料短缺。这意味着，当前的电池产能过剩或只是阶段性现象，未来全球电池供应链仍将面临结构性挑战。
According to Nikkei, citing S&P Global Mobility, the global EV battery market is heading into significant oversupply as demand cools. By 2026, supply is expected to exceed demand more than threefold, and remain more than double by 2030.
Global EV battery production capacity is projected to reach 3,930 GWh annually, compared with only 1,161 GWh in demand. North America faces the sharpest imbalance, with supply forecast to be 4.8 times higher than demand this year, a gap likely to persist beyond 2028. Efforts by the U.S. and Japan to establish local production are now under pressure as slowing demand undermines investment.
Chinese manufacturers continue to dominate, with CATL and BYD together accounting for around 70% of the global market, while Korean and Japanese players such as LG Energy Solution and Panasonic have lost ground. Investment projects in the U.S. and South Korea have been delayed or scaled back, and Sweden’s Northvolt filed for bankruptcy protection earlier this year.
Battery oversupply has already pushed prices lower. Goldman Sachs reports that average battery pack prices fell to $111/kWh in 2024, and could decline further to $80/kWh by 2026. Despite the downturn, Chinese firms are expanding in Europe and scaling up low-cost production, widening the gap with global competitors.
The International Energy Agency has cautioned that underinvestment in lithium and nickel mining could trigger raw material shortages by 2030. This suggests the current oversupply may prove temporary, with structural challenges looming for the global EV battery supply chain.