墨西哥关税骤升至50%，中国车企北美战略遭遇考验
9月10日，墨西哥政府宣布，将来自中国及其他亚洲国家的汽车关税由20%提升至50%。此举覆盖纺织、钢铁、汽车等多个行业，涉及进口规模约520亿美元，官方解释为“保护国内就业”。然而，业内普遍认为，此举剑指近年来借道墨西哥、试图进入北美市场的中国汽车制造商。
过去五年，中国对墨汽车出口从3.5万辆增至44.5万辆，使墨西哥成为继俄罗斯之后的第二大出口市场。中国车企在墨西哥的布局逐渐由单纯出口转向本地化生产，部分企业已投资建立KD散件工厂及研发中心，以满足《美墨加协定》（USMCA）的原产地规则。
关税骤然升至50%将对成本和竞争力造成系统性冲击。一辆出口价2.5万美元的新能源汽车在新政下成本将增加至3.85万美元，若维持利润率，终端售价需上涨至4.43万美元，明显高于当地市场中特斯拉Model 3（3.8万美元）和大众ID.4（3.5万美元）的价格区间。若企业选择自行消化成本，利润率则锐减至3%左右。行业预测，中国品牌在墨西哥市场份额或将从当前的9.1%跌至6%以下。
除成本压力外，物流和供应链亦将受挫。墨西哥约40%的汽车零部件仍依赖中国进口，其中核心零部件比例更高。关税范围覆盖钢铁、铝等材料，短期内本地供应链难以替代。
此次政策冲击虽带来短期阵痛，但也将推动中国车企在全球化战略上加速转型。一方面，加快本地化布局已成必然选择。建厂、提升本地零部件采购比例、满足USMCA原产地规则，将是中国车企规避关税、维持竞争力的关键。但这也意味着高额的资本投入与复杂的供应链管理挑战。另一方面，多元化市场开拓同样重要。东南亚、中东、非洲、澳大利亚及拉美其他国家对新能源汽车的需求正在增长，中国车企需优化全球市场组合，分散集中风险。
更为深远的是，中国汽车产业必须逐步摆脱“低价驱动”的国际化路径，转向技术研发、品牌建设和服务体系驱动的竞争模式。唯有通过输出“品牌与生态”，建立稳定的海外客户群与服务网络，才能在全球贸易保护主义抬头的背景下保持长期韧性。
On September 10, Mexico announced it would raise tariffs on cars imported from China and other Asian countries from 20% to 50%. The measure, which also covers textiles and steel, affects imports worth an estimated USD 52 billion. While officially framed as a move to “protect domestic jobs,” industry observers see it as a direct response to Chinese automakers using Mexico as a springboard into the North American market.
China’s auto exports to Mexico surged from 35,000 units in 2020 to 445,000 units in 2024, making Mexico the second-largest overseas destination after Russia. Many Chinese carmakers have shifted from relying solely on exports to building KD assembly plants and R&D centers to meet USMCA rules of origin and embed themselves locally.
However, the tariff hike poses a systemic challenge. For a Chinese EV priced at USD 25,000, total costs now rise to USD 38,500. To maintain margins, retail prices would have to climb to USD 44,300—well above competitors such as Tesla’s Model 3 at USD 38,000 and VW’s ID.4 at USD 35,000. If costs are absorbed, margins shrink to around 3%. Analysts forecast Chinese brands’ market share in Mexico could fall from 9.1% to below 6%.
In addition, supply chains face disruption. Around 40% of components for Chinese-made vehicles in Mexico are still imported, with even higher dependence on batteries and motors. Since tariffs also cover steel and aluminum, localized sourcing becomes urgent but not easily achievable.
While the short-term impact is severe, the tariff shock may accelerate Chinese automakers’ strategic evolution. Rapidly expanding local production to comply with USMCA rules, diversifying into new global markets, and rebalancing supply chains are all essential steps.
More fundamentally, sustainable global competitiveness will require shifting from cost-driven exports toward brand strength, technology leadership, and robust service ecosystems. Only by moving from “exporting products” to “exporting brands and ecosystems” can Chinese automakers build lasting resilience amid rising protectionism and geopolitical uncertainty.