2024应对东南亚电动汽车颠覆浪潮——新能源时代汽车行业决策者战略要务报告
December 3, 2024 罗兰贝格 Roland Berger
随着全球各国政府加快推进净零目标，交通电动化已成为必然趋势。东南亚作为全球少数仍保持乘用车市场稳步增长的地区，正日益成为电动汽车发展的战略要地。预计到2030年，该地区新能源汽车的市场份额将达到38%。在这一背景下，电动化的浪潮已从“是否会发生”转变为“能多快、多大规模发生”，其颠覆效应将深刻重塑行业格局。
消费者需求的变化是推动这一转型的重要动力。东南亚年轻一代对环保与智能科技的高度关注，使他们更愿意接受电动车及新兴品牌。与此同时，传统日系品牌的主导地位正面临挑战，中国车企凭借“速度、成本与技术”的综合优势快速崛起，成为该地区竞争格局中的重要变量。
报告进一步指出，电动车的普及将推动销售模式与售后服务体系的深刻变革。传统经销商模式正面临直销和代理模式的冲击，电动车零部件需求的变化也将削弱传统售后市场的盈利能力。如何通过差异化的品牌定位、优化的产品组合和创新的商业模式，成为车企能否在新常态中立足的关键。
在战略层面，主机厂需要将东南亚视为全球化布局中的必选项，而非单纯的市场选择。通过长期投资、生态伙伴合作与明确的品牌战略，企业不仅能够把握区域机遇，还能借助东南亚作为生产与出口中心，辐射更广泛的国际市场。报告呼吁行业决策者必须及时应对，否则固守传统路径将面临失去竞争力甚至边缘化的风险。
This report highlights that as governments worldwide accelerate their net-zero agendas, the electrification of transport has become an inevitable trend. Southeast Asia, one of the few regions still sustaining steady passenger vehicle growth, is rapidly emerging as a strategic hub for electric vehicles. By 2030, new energy vehicles, including hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery electric vehicles, are expected to account for 38% of the market. Against this backdrop, the key question is no longer whether EVs will grow in Southeast Asia, but how fast and how large, with disruptive implications for the industry.
Shifting consumer demand plays a critical role in this transformation. Younger generations in Southeast Asia demonstrate strong environmental awareness and enthusiasm for smart technologies, making them more open to EV adoption and new brands. Meanwhile, the dominance of Japanese automakers is under increasing pressure, as Chinese brands rapidly rise with clear advantages in speed, cost efficiency, and technology, reshaping the region’s competitive landscape.
The report further notes that electrification is driving fundamental changes in sales models and aftersales services. Traditional dealer-based systems are being challenged by direct and agency sales approaches, while the reduced need for conventional parts is expected to diminish profitability in the aftermarket. For OEMs, building differentiated brand identities, optimizing product portfolios, and innovating business models are essential to maintaining relevance in the new normal.
Strategically, Southeast Asia should be regarded not merely as a market option but as a vital component of global expansion. By committing to long-term investments, forging ecosystem partnerships, and establishing clear brand strategies, automakers can capture opportunities and leverage the region as a production and export base to serve broader markets. The report urges industry leaders to act decisively, as adherence to traditional pathways risks erosion of competitiveness and eventual marginalization.